I’m not much of a gambler, as my results in various pools would attest, and baseball is an especially difficult sport to handicap on a day-to-day basis.  But I do think it’s interesting to look at the pre-season over/unders for teams, even more so than the straight odds on winning the pennant.

Just like other gambling lines, the numbers don’t necessarily represent the win total that the oddsmaker thinks each team will hit, but what number can entice action on both sides.

I checked out SportsInteraction.com, which listed their preseason odds here.

Not surprisingly, the Yankees, at 96.5, and Red Sox, at 94.5, are the two highest listed.

I found it interesting that the next team is the Cubs, at 91.5, the only other team listed over 90.  The Phillies and Mets are both at 89.5, which seems to be completely against what their respective off-season moves would indicate.  Philadelphia won 93 games in 2009, added Roy Halladay and Placido Polanco, kept the rest of the lineup intact and still have the best offensive team in the National League.   The Mets won 70 games, and added Jason Bay and… well… Henry Blanco. I just can’t see the Phils and Mets battling it out for the NL East crown.

Here are a few over/unders that stand out for me, and my thoughts:

Orioles OVER 70.5 – I think this could be the surprise team in the A.L.  They won’t have enough to challenge the top three in the division, and it won’t help that they have to play 60 games against the Sox, Yanks and Rays, but 71 wins is very doable.

Reds UNDER 79.5 – The Reds have gotten a lot of notice among baseball circles for some strong off-season moves, and they’d only need to improve by 2 games from last year to hit this number, but their top-to-bottom pitching and inexperienced outfield make me think around .500 might be ambitious.

Royals UNDER 74.5 – That’s a low number to come under, and even with Zack Greinke going every fifth day and probably winning 15 to 17, the Royals would still need 60 or so wins in the other 130 games.  But Jason Kendall is the starting catcher, Yunieski Betancourt is the shortstop, and Luke Hochevar, Kyle Davies and Brian Bannister are pitching three of the other four games.  Or Kyle Farnsworth, who may be tried out as a starter.  No, thanks.

Dodgers OVER 84.5 – I feel like they’re really teasing me here.  After all, the Dodgers won 95 games last year, and it’s basically the same team, with a couple of exceptions, albeit in what I think will be a stronger division across the board.  Still, I don’t see this team being 11 games worse than last year, with Kershaw, Billingsley, Kuroda and Padilla going four of every five games.

Mets UNDER 89.5 – This could be a trap. But I don’t think it is.

Phillies OVER 89.5 – Ditto.

Pirates OVER 68.5 – Maybe I just want this once proud franchise to break through, and there isn’t a whole lot to be optomistic about, except some good young talent and a so-so division that could maybe just lead to about 70 wins.  If God drops everything.

Nationals OVER 65.5 – The division is going to be tougher, but there’s some hope, and 66 wins is still a pretty low bar, so I’ll take the over, especially if Stephen Strasburg gets some innings beginning mid-year and Ryan Zimmerman gets some help from young guys like Nyjer Morgan and Elijah Dukes.

As for the Yankees, 97 is a lot of wins, with Boston and Tampa fielding strong teams and the Orioles improved.  But they won 103 last year, pretty much coasting to the finish, so I think the number is set at an interesting spot.  I’d reluctantly take the over, even not knowing how the outfield situation will settle, especially since the rotation is so strong.

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