I like that the minimum requirements mean that Bobby Higginson and Lenny Harris get on the ballot. Cool.

I remember the tongue-in-cheek “One man, one vote” campaign that Jim Deshaies waged in “support” of his 2001 candidacy.  He got his one vote.

My thoughts are below on who SHOULD/SHOULDN’T and who WILL/WONT get in in 2010.

Further posts on this to follow, with some explanations and a bit more analysis…

Roberto Alomar, SHOULD, WILL
Carlos Baerga, SHOULDNT, WONT
Jeff Bagwell, SHOULD, WILL
Harold Baines, SHOULDNT, WONT
Bert Blyleven, SHOULD, WONT
Bret Boone, SHOULDNT, WONT
Kevin Brown, SHOULDNT, WONT
John Franco, SHOULDNT, WONT
Juan Gonzalez, SHOULDNT, WONT
Marquis Grissom, SHOULDN’T, WONT
Lenny Harris, SHOULDN’T, WONT
Bobby Higginson, SHOULDN’T, WONT
Charles Johnson, SHOULDN’T, WONT
Barry Larkin, SHOULD, WILL
Al Leiter, SHOULDN’T, WONT
Edgar Martinez, SHOULD, WONT
Tino Martinez, SHOULDN’T, WONT
Don Mattingly, SHOULDN’T, WONT
Fred McGriff, SHOULDN’T, WONT
Mark McGwire, SHOULDN’T, WONT
Raul Mondesi, SHOULDN’T, WONT
Jack Morris, SHOULDN’T, WONT
Dale Murphy, SHOULDNT, WONT
John Olerud, SHOULDNT, WONT
Rafael Palmeiro, SHOULD’NT, WONT
Dave Parker, SHOULD’NT, WONT
Tim Raines, SHOULD, WONT
Kirk Rueter, SHOULDN’T, WONT
Benito Santiago, SHOULDN’T, WONT
Lee Smith, SHOULDN’T, WONT
B.J. Surhoff, SHOULDN’T, WONT
Alan Trammell, SHOULD, WONT
Larry Walker. SHOULDN’T, WONT

Baseball Think Factory has been tallying Hall of Fame voting among 89 full ballots.   Their numbers to date:

Alomar 88.8%
Blyleven 82.0%
Dawson 79.8%
Larkin 57.0%
Morris 51.7%
Raines 42.7%
Martinez 41.6%
Smith 38.2%
McGwire 32.6%
Trammell 25.8%

SB Nation ran a poll of its own bloggers, with the following top 12:

Blyleven 92.3%
Alomar 73.1%
Larkin 63.5%
Raines 53.8%
McGwire 51.9%
Martinez 48.1%
Trammell 40.4%
Dawson 32.7%
Smith 26.9%
McGriff 25.0%
Murphy 17.3%
Morris 13.5%

It’s interesting that Andre Dawson and Jack Morris get so much more support from writers, and Tim Raines and Alan Trammell are pushed more by the bloggers.  But the Dawson/Morris disparities are huge: Dawson get in on the writers’ exit poll, while earning less than 1/3 of the bloggers vote.  And Morris doesn’t even make the bloggers’ top 10.

Why the huge variance? I think the positives for Dawson (438 home runs, great all-around player) and Morris (most wins in the 80s, ‘big game pitcher’) resonate better with the writers, who tend to have been involved in the game longer and are more set in their criteria.  The bloggers, less experienced in covering the game, have tended to latch onto newer stats and newer thinking – and Dawson’s low OBP and Morris’ high ERA have counted against them.

I’m not surprised that a selection of bloggers, even if loosely associated through SB Nation, would only agree on one candidate, since they come from a wider background and more varied experience level than the BBWAA members.

Poz has some interesting thoughts on Jim Rice vs. Roy White – the point being that you wouldn’t think of White as being as near a good a player as Rice, but when you look deeper, the case can be made… I’m interested to see if Raines garners more support this year, without an absolute slam-dunk on the ballot.